Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Memo to Hank Steinbrenner: There is not a single Yankee fan in the entire world who wants you to trade Phil Hughes for Johan Santana

From League Execs Predict Hank To Go For Santana -

"The Johan Santana Sweepstakes are likely to come down to whether new Yankees boss Hank Steinbrenner is willing to overrule GM Brian Cashman again. Steinbrenner wants to go for Santana, Cashman doesn't (at least not at the cost of Phil Hughes)."

This is for Hankenstein and anyone else who has any say in the future of our beloved baseball team:


It would be the worst trade in recorded history.

I'm not sure I can make it any clearer.


Anonymous said...

Go trade Hughes who cares. I'm tired of Wang. He's overrated.

DRU said...


Jerry said...

From Today Chat with Keith Law

Sam-Nj: Merry X-mas Keith… Anyone who thinks bucholz is equal to hughes has never looked at anything but a box score… Their pure stuff is comparable, but before the injury, Hughes had a slight edge all around, but hughes is also three years younger and still developing physically. Bucholz is where he’s going to be physically, especially in terms of power (which translates to break on his secondary pitches). Scouts having followed them consider Hughes to be a more intelligent, polished pitcher, despite being younger. Hughes has no personality issues, and showed in the playoffs that he can step into a big spot and come up even bigger. Bucholz has already been arrested and is a spoiled rich kid who thinks he can get away with anything. Hughes mechanics are considered fairly sound, none of his pitches thought to be serious injury risks. Bucholz mechanics on his breaking balls are ‘whippy’ and put a lot of torque on his arm. there is a lot of question how, especially as thin as he is, if his arm will hold up. so… even if there stuff is comparable, age, polish, mechanics, body… all go in favor of hughes… it’s why he was the highest rated pitching prospect in baseball coming into 07.

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:28 PM ET ) Merry Christmas to you too. I have zero idea where you get any of this from. Buchholz’ raw stuff > Hughes’. When Hughes has two secondary pitches as good as Buchholz’ curve and change, you give me a call, OK? [/quote]

TIWWDN said...

Yes, because Keith Law is the be-all end-all when it comes to baseball prospects.

Law's been hating on Hughes for quite some time; I really can't take anything he says seriously.

But thanks for reposting that.

DRU said...

Keith Law's opinion is just one of many. Baseball America, and every other minor league outlet on the planet had Hughes ranked WAY ahead of Bucholtz in 06 and 07. I will take their opinions over an ESPN analyst ( a dime a dozen ) any day. Ive been on those chats a Million times ( play fantasy baseball each year ), guys like Law make statements, end up being wrong, then back peddle the rest of the year. Keith is entitled to his own opinion, I would guarantee that another expert would have the opposite opinion. I guess we’ll have to wait a couple years to see who was right and who was wrong.

2006 Rankings =

2007 Rankings =

In 06 Phil was ranked as a 5 star player and #3 overall behind Delmon Young and Alex Gordon, both stud players about to take off this year. I couldnt even find Bucholtz.

In 07 Phil was again ranked as a 5 Star player and #1 overall. Bucholtz finally cracked the top 50 at #40, a 3 Star Player.

Choose what information you want to reference: a place like who's sole purpose is to scout the minor leagues, or an ESPN analyst that like 'Sam-Nj' said, probably only looked at the box scores. Phil had one of the best curves in the minor leagues those years and is working on a change.

Unbiased (if there is such a thing) scouting report on Phil Hughes

Talks about his need to develop a changeup. Remember, Santana didnt master his changeup until he was 24-25 and got hammered until he did. The feel for the changeup takes time for EVERY SP, nobody has one from day one. Lets not forget that Phil just turned 21 in June. He was also hurt most of the year and didnt feel like "himself" until Sept when he dominated from then to the Indians game.

At 6'5"-220, he's a thoroughbred in the making, don’t make glue out of him yet folks!

Anonymous said...

SI- AL Rotations Rankings for 2008

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (17 points)

• Elite (4 points): John Lackey
• Above-average (6): Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver
• Average to above-average (4): Joe Saunders, Jon Garland
• Mystery (1): Ervin Santana
• Up-and-coming (2): Dustin Moseley, Nick Adenhart

Comment: The Angels have a starting staff that most teams envy, even the Red Sox, who bounced Los Angeles from the playoffs last October. Lackey is an underrated ace, while Weaver, Saunders, Santana and Moseley -- all 26 or under -- are at crucial stages in their development. The 21-year-old Adenhart could get called upon in the second half.

Boston Red Sox (16 points)

• Elite (4): Josh Beckett
• Above-average (3): Curt Schilling
• Average to above-average (6): Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka
• Up-and-coming (3): Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson
• Below-average (0): Julian Tavarez

Comment: Beckett gets elite status thanks to a fine 2007 season and extraordinary postseason, but as recently as 2006 he was below average, so consistency is a concern. He enters 2008 as a perfectly valid ace on a top-notch staff. Buchholz and Lester should ease any concerns over the aging Schilling and Wakefield.

Cleveland Indians (16 points)

• Elite (4): C.C. Sabathia
• Above-average (3): Fausto Carmona
• Average to above-average (4): Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd
• Mystery (2): Cliff Lee, Jeremy Sowers
• Up-and-coming (3): Aaron Laffey, Adam Miller, Chuck Lofgren

Comment: Cy Young-winner Sabathia leads a deep staff that is not without its question marks. Carmona, Lee, and Sowers don't have a long track record of success, and the rest of the rotation doesn't strike out many batters. The up-and-comers have a long way to go to prove themselves, making this group vulnerable to disappointment.

Tampa Bay Rays (14 points)

• Elite (4): Scott Kazmir
• Above-average (3): James Shields
• Average to above-average (2): Matt Garza
• Up-and-coming (5): Jeff Niemann, Christopher Mason, Wade Davis, David Price, Jacob McGee
• Below-average (0): Jason Hammel, J.P Howell, Jae Kuk Ryu, Edwin Jackson

Comment: Tampa Bay has a significant stash of noteworthy young pitchers, and there's no reason to think some can't start contributing this year, especially Garza, whom they acquired from the Twins in an offseason trade.

Toronto Blue Jays (14 points)

• Elite (4): Roy Halladay
• Above-average (3): A. J. Burnett
• Average to above-average (6): Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
• Mystery (1): Casey Janssen
• Below-average (0): Gustavo Chacin, Randy Wells

Comment: This rotation gets overshadowed in the AL East by the star power in New York and Boston, but all five spots here are solid. Will Halladay -- who yielded more than a hit an inning in 2007 for the first time since an injury-shortened 2004 -- fall into from the elite category by the end of this year?

Minnesota Twins (13 points)

• Elite (4): Johan Santana
• Average to above-average (4): Scott Baker, Boof Bonser
• Mystery (1): Francisco Liriano
• Up-and-coming (4): Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak

Comment: Liriano's successful return from injury, especially if he resembles his dominant rookie self of 2006, would give the Twins a worthy front four. And there's a little help on the way as well from the kids. But all bets are off until the Santana trade talk is resolved.

Seattle Mariners (12 points)

• Above-average (3): Felix Hernandez
• Average to above-average (6): Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva
• Mystery (1): Cha Seung Baek
• Up-and-coming (2): Ryan Feierabend, Brandon Morrow
• Below-average (0): Horacio Ramirez

Comment: After a blazing freshman year, a sophomore slump and a junior-year recovery, Hernandez hopes to firmly establish himself as the above-average pitcher everyone expects him to be. Washburn, Batista, Baek and Ramirez might struggle to keep the Mariners afloat, at least until Feierabend and/or Morrow lock down spots. The signing of the veteran Silva will keep a less-talented, less-experienced arm out of the rotation.

New York Yankees (11 points)

• Above-average (6): Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte
• Average to above-average (2): Philip Hughes
• Up-and-coming (3): Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne
• Below-average (0): Kei Igawa, Mike Mussina

Comment: Even if they don't trade for Santana, the Yankees are poised to have an above-average rotation -- if not a superb one -- thanks to the infusion led by Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy. They could use another effective year from the 35-year-old Pettitte, because the 39-year-old Mussina has been subpar three of the past four seasons.

Baltimore Orioles (10 points)

• Elite (4): Erik Bedard
• Average to above-average (2): Jeremy Guthrie
• Mystery (2): Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn
• Up-and-coming (2): Garret Olson, Radhames Liz
• Below-average (0): Daniel Cabrera, Brian Burres, Matt Albers

Comment: Bedard is another trade candidate, and without him, Baltimore could end up with the worst rotation in the league. In any case, the Orioles need the kids to step up fast if they want to avoid a long season.

Detroit Tigers (9 points)

• Above-average (3): Justin Verlander
• Average to above-average (2): Kenny Rogers
• Mystery (3): Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson
• Up-and-coming (1): Yorman Bazardo
• Below-average (0): Chad Durbin

Comment: Oh, there could be a lot of runs in Motown this year -- for both sides. Several Tigers pitchers, young and old, slumped from 2006 to '07. Some bounce back may be in order, but above their high-powered offense, wispy clouds of doubt hang over the staff, which gave up rising youngsters Andrew Miller and Jair Jurrjens in trades.

Oakland A's (9 points)

• Average to above-average (2): Joe Blanton
• Mystery (4): Chad Gaudin, Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer, Dan Meyer
• Up-and-coming (3): Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Dallas Braden
• Below-average (0): Lenny DiNardo

Comment: Firmly in rebuilding mode with the trade of Danny Haren -- not to mention the potential disembarkment of Blanton -- the A's will keep things interesting by leading the league in mystery pitchers.

Chicago White Sox (8 points)

• Above-average (3 points): Mark Buehrle
• Average to above-average (2): Javier Vasquez
• Mystery (1): Jose Contreras
• Up-and-coming (2): John Danks, Gio Gonzalez
Below-average (0): Gavin Floyd

Comment: Not a deep staff. If Danks and Gonzalez don't come on strong, the White Sox could really be in trouble.

Kansas City Royals (7 points)

• Above-average (3): Brian Bannister
• Average to above-average (6): Gil Meche, Zack Greinke
• Up-and-coming (1): Luke Hochevar
• Below-average (0): Kyle Davies, Jorge De La Rosa, Luke Hudson, Brandon Duckworth, Tyler Lumsden

Comment: Meche's signing last off-season was much-criticized, and his 9-13 record failed to silence the critics or provide the ace Kansas City needs. Overall, the Royals figure to be overmatched by the other team's starting pitcher most of the time in 2008. I've left A-ball pitchers off the ratings, but could Daniel Cortes, who turns 21 in March, make the leap?

Texas Rangers (6 points)

• Mystery (2 points): Robinson Tejeda, Jamey Wright
• Up-and-coming (4): Brandon McCarthy, Kason Gabbard, Edinson Volquez, Eric Hurley
• Below-average (0): Kevin Millwood, Kameron Loe, Vicente Padilla, John Rheinecker

Comment: Every third year --- 1999, 2002, 2005 --- Millwood shines. The Rangers sure would like that trend to continue.

Wow Angels are #1. and John Lackey is an Elite starter ? Did He got lit up by Redsox in the postseason this year? lmao

Yankees only 11 points? I think that's too low

Matt said...

Someone needs to tell Keith Law about Hughes' Curve and Slider. He obviously wouldn't know about that as he is too busy drooling over Buchholz.

DRU said...

Maybe Im a little biased, but based on his minor league stats and multiple minor league rankings, I dont think Lester is that good to head any package. I think the Yanks can put a package together headed by Ian, that doesn’t include Phil, that exceeds the Lester package.

Kennedy is just flat out better than Lester

Ian has a better ERA, Win/Loss record, H9, HR/9, BB/9, K/9, WHIP...every minor league stat you put the two head to head in Ian come out on top. Then factor in their brief major league stats and you find more of the same.

Lester – 23 years old…32-31…3.33 ERA…7.99 H/9…0.56 HR/9…3.78 BB/9…8.31 K/9…1.31 WHIP
Ian – 22 years old…12-3…1.87 ERA…5.62 H/9…0.36 HR/9…3.14 BB/9…9.97 K/9…0.97 WHIP

Melky is better than Coco, cheaper and younger

Last two years

06 - 26 years old..413 AB...264 Avg..702 OPS..67 K's
07 - 27 years old..526 AB...268 Avg..712 OPS..84 K's

06 - 21 years old..460 AB..280 Avg..751 OPS..59 K's
07 - 22 years old..545 AB..273 Avg..718 OPS..68 K's

Justin Masterson ( BOS )
minor league totals
22 years old..15-9..3.74 ERA..185in..148K's
just came off a season in AA that he went 4-3..4.34 ERA

Jeff Marquez ( NY )
22 years old...35-32...3.40 ERA..485in..345K's
just came off a season in AA that he went 15-9..3.65 ERA

Jed Lowrie ( BOS )
23 year old SS...1072 AB...291 Avg...834 OPS..20 HR..14 SB

Alberto Gonzalez ( NY )
24 years old SS...1613 AB...277 Avg...715 OPS..10 HR..38 SB Gold Glove caliber defense, better than Lowrie

Other than Lowrie, the rest of the Yanks prospects are better than the Sox prospects. To make up for the difference the Yanks could also throw in a 5th player.

Marcos Vechionacci - 21 year old 3B - 16 HR - 40 SB

Or to seal the deal =

Daniel McCutchen
24 years old...16-4...172 IP...2.41 ERA...1.01 WHIP...133 K's

So the Red Sox best offer.


is not as good as a similar package the Yanks can put together

Gonzalez and/or McCutchen and/or Vechionacci.

Thats not just opinion Red Sox fans, those are facts. We should not include Phil in any package.

Bucholtz = Hughes

Hughes 21...25-8...2.03 ERA...275in...311K's..66BB..0.86 WHIP
Clay 22...19-10...2.46 ERA...285in...356K's..77BB..1.00 WHIP

If the Twins are not demanding Bucholz from the Sox, why are they demanding Phil from the Yanks? We have secondary packages that exceed the Sox offers without including Joba, Phil or Cano.

There is some BS going on here and Im glad the Yanks pulled out. If the Twins want to deal Johan..


Is the highest the Yanks should go. That package would only be beat by the Sox including Lester, Ellsbury, Masterson and Lowrie...which I dont see them doing.

DRU said...

nobody is going to convince me that trading away Hughes, Kennedy, Melky and Horne or another top prospect is worth Santana. I base this on my belief that there is just no way he can duplicate the numbers these past 4 years over the next 7 or 8 years. I also think that Melk will be a 20/20, +.300 hitting cannon armed CF for the next 15 years. I also believe that Phil and Ian will go on to great things over their career, more so with Phil. Even if it was a 1 for 1 deal and Phil is 75% of Johan, he's still 8 years younger and has much less wear on the arm ( Johan led the league in innings the past 4 years ).

On the flip side I know that I cannot convince anyone that trading for Johan is a bad thing. I mean 4 prospects for the best SP in the league? AND he’s a lefty? AND he’s not even 30 yet? The cards are stacked against me and my brethren big time on that argument. Its like trying to stop an avalanche with a shovel.

Like so many things though, its not as black and white as trading 4 maybes for a definite. Lets look at this another way.

We trade for Johan….give away the 4 guys I listed earlier…sign Johan to a 7 year, 200M dollar extension. 75% of Yankee fans are against the trade; I base this on a Newsday poll that asked if we should trade for Johan or continue with the building from within plan, 75% of the Yankee fans wanted to keep the kids and build from within. On top of that the Yankee GM publicly said he did not want to make the deal. Now that is a lot of pressure going against Johan. Can he live up to that pressure? Maybe, nobody can answer that question. Many players claimed to be ready for the big Apple, but failed. But lets continue with our best case scenario of the Yankees signing him, him being healthy and ready for the spotlight. Now with all that pressure comes great expectations. Johan is pitching against the Sox. Lets say Johan goes 8in…4hits…0ER…12K. Now I don’t know a Yankee fan on the globe that would not be happy with that line. My question for you is how happy? Would it be a feeling of “Oh my god, did you see that game!” Or would it be a feeling of “good, that’s why we paid him all the money and gave away all the prospects, that’s what he’s supposed to do”. Now on the flip side. Lets say Phil is pitching against the Sox, he also has a line of 8in…4hits…0ER…12K. What’s the buzz around the water cooler the next day? It would have that “Oh my god, did you see that game!” feeling to it. Amazing!

Now I know what some responses will be to that statement. “Hey Dru, dummy, The fact that Johan’s line is more of a normal event than Phil’s speaks volumes for Johan. If any lower level SP does that it has buzz.” That's true, but the thing is, it would be our buzz. No Yankee hater across the country could give anything but praise for Phil doing that. To me, that value carries a lot of weight. Now if Phil stinks the rest of the year its doesnt mean a thing. What if though...WHAT IF that is just the start of something great? WHAT IF he figured out his changeup and throws that along with his hammer curve and pinpoint fastball? WHAT IF it was the start or his greatness? The buzz around NY would be higher than any buzz Johan could produce, why? Expectations...its a killer!

I have another question to all the Santana supporters. What if Phil didn’t get hurt in Texas and pitched a no hitter? Who knows what Phil could have done if 100% healthy all year. What if he ended up getting ROY and had great numbers like he did in Sept. Would we be having this discussion? Would Phil be involved in this offer? I don’t think he would. Joba and Phil would be untouchable. Or maybe Yankee fans would be saying trade Joba. My point is that we don’t even know for certain, bad or good, what we have with Phil. Arent any of the Johan supporters at least interested to see what Phil can do over an entire season? I am. I cant wait to see Phil 15 years from now still in pinstripes going for the Yankee all time wins record Don’t you guys think there is something wrong that Ford is the all time win leader at only 236? Or that the Yanks only have two guys with 200 wins?

Ford = 236
Ruffing = 231
Gomez = 189
Guidry = 170

We have a chance to have our own 300 game winner, not just getting one at the tail end of his career, but a true 300 game winner from start to finish. A player that will be called a “True Yankee”. Will Johan ever fit under that cat? He would need to win the CY Young and WS every year of his contract to be considered a “True Yankee”. I think the opportunity to have a Yankee legend from start to finish is worth the risk of taking a step back in 08.

Im sure people will spit back fire from this post because it assumes much. Again, try to remember that I am throwing rocks at an Abrams tank; I have to swing for the fences. You guys have all the stats in your favor, Im trying to give this issue a different spin. There is more to being a baseball fan than W’s and L’s. My dream is that Phil lives up to the expectations and 15-20 years from now I can bring my son to the game and tell him about Phil Hughes, the all time Yankees Win leader, the guy we almost gave away.

DRU said...

Hughes' playoff appearance. Think about when you were 21 years old, may be harder for Now rewind a couple months ago to Game 3 of the ALDS. The Yanks are down 0-2 after Wang got hammered in game one, and we lost a heart breaker in game 2 (THE SWARM). We come back to Yankee stadium and the great Roger Clemens takes the mound. 2 1/3 innings later Cleveland is up 3-0 and Roger is getting hammered. 4 hits, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HR. The season is about to end tonight and we've only gotten 7 outs. Runner on 1st with one out in the 3rd and Phil Hughes comes in; with the entire season on the line and 55K fans screaming his name, to relieve one of the best SP's of all time. So how did he do?

He got 11 outs ( 3.2 in )...63 pitches, 43 for strikes, 2 hits allowed, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K. If Phil starts that game he goes 7 strong easy.

How many people have we seen melt in the bright lights of the big city? We have a 21 year old, 21!!!! who proved, even for a short amount of time, that he can embrace the spotlight. That he can succeed even when the cards are stacked against him. That he has no fear in throwing strikes and getting batters out on the biggest stage. That my friends is something that cannot be overlooked.

People complain that he doesnt have a great 3rd pitch. Again, I cannot dispute that fact, being only 21 he needs a little more time to get the feel for his change. What does he have already? He has pinpoint control of his 95mph fastball. His 2 seamer bites and his 4 seamer rises out of the strike zone. I remember when he was in Arlington last year and wherever Jorge put his glove, Phil hit it. When you have control and can move your fastball all over the strike zone with 95 on it, you will be hard to hit. In the minors he's even reached back for 97 on occasions. His 2nd pitch is his curve, and it too is outstanding. He throws it for a strike during any count. He was voted as having one of the best curves in the minors before last year. Here's a little secret...he didnt start throwing a curve until 3 years ago when Nardi Contreras told him to shelf his slider and go to the curve. It will only get better with time. Now on to his 3rd pitch, he worked on his changeup all of 2006, the Yanks forced him to throw it as many times as his curve. It is a pitch that will continue to improve over time. With how hard Phil works, its just a matter of time before that is a + pitch as well. Once that happens and he can throw it for a strike, WATCH OUT!

Jbv said...

Sox Fan says

Can someone explain why Hughes is better than Lester? I mean just look at what each player has done in the Show so far in their career. I don't care about your AAA stats or big expectations. Lester pwns Hughes!!

dru said...

Come on, I wont even reply to such an ignorant statement. If the Sox fan wanted to make an argument of who was better Bucholtz or Hughes, we could have a healthy discussion about it. Lester is a nice kid and all, but lets be honest here, his celing is VERY low. Id ranked Ian Kennedy over him and have the stats to back it up.

susan mullen said...

The article you reference is penned by Jon Heyman who is desperate to create a story, telling us we HAVE to sign Santana, we CAN't let the Red Sox get him. First, he's wrong. We don't have to do anything. Second, how does Heyman know he'll go to the Red Sox? Third, I'm tired of media members thinking they can dictate what this team does. If we did sign his buddy Santana, Heyman would be out 2 seconds later about how unfair baseball is, the Yankees are greedy pigs, no one else can compete they're so bad. For this and other reasons, I don't want Santana. And keep Phil Hughes.

dru said...