Motherfucking FINALLY

The authors of this site discuss what's to be done in Yankeeland

Hit Man:

Ding dong, the season's dead.............not to put the blame solely on him, but you can put all that ops crap in your back pocket, a-rod's is an albatross contract.

Larry:

Man, truly a deflating loss. I was pretty excited prior to the game, but realistically the really needed to sweep to have any prayer of sniffing the playoffs...barring a miracle, I can't imagine this sorry-ass team making it. And even if they did somehow make it, they'd then have the pleasure of getting to face the Angels in the first round. In a sad, sad way it's probably better this 2008 Yankee squad is put out to pasture rather than suffering another embarrassing early exit.

I know A-Rod will be the favorite target of many, and while I can't defend his performance yesterday -- which was obviously putrid -- I still can't get into the blame-one-player mentality in such a team-oriented game.

Although as much of an A-Rod apologist as I am, he really needs to be taking better at-bats than that. With bases loaded and one out in the 7th, you HAVE to figure out a way to score a run. He seldom looks comfortable with the game on the line, and you know the pitchers know this, because they come right at him and challenge him. HE needs to stop worrying about trying to blast a 3-run HR or grand slam in those spots, and WAIT for his pitch. I can't remember the last time I saw Alex walk with the bases loaded.

And as bad as A-Rod was, it's easy to forget that it's a hell of a lot easier to bat when you're ahead, and Andy, who I've always been fond of, did not get the job done on the mound last night. Both times we took leads he gave 'em right back. Now the one thing I'll say on that, and I'm generally not one to blame the umps, but man oh man was he getting squeezed by Reynolds. I counted at least FIVE strikes that were called balls. Who knows if things end up turning out differently, but I really think Andy got FUCKED on the strike zone last night.

So while A-Rod is definitely culpable last night, he's not the reason the Yankees lost this game. Our normally reliable starter put us in a hole, and we couldn't climb out of it. Last I checked, there are 8 other batters in that lineup, and while a handful of them did their jobs, an equal amount of them didn't.

Hit Man:

I have one question for you......game 7, top 9th, 2 out, runner on 2nd, we're down by 1. Who do you want up?

Larry:

I'll take the guy with the 2nd-best OPS in the majors all day every day.

I'm a stat guy through-and-through. People can cite not coming through in the clutch 'til the cows come home, and yes, his BA with RISP is terrible this year, but so is the entire damn team's.

He happened to come up in the biggest spots last night, and he didn't come through and that sucks. Does Jeter get a hit there? Maybe. And maybe he grounds into a DP, something he's been outstanding at doing this year. Of course, if Jeter grounds into a DP he still gets a pass because he won 4 rings a decade ago.

A-Rod wins two MVPs in four years in New York and still catches the most shit from the media and fans, despite the fact that there's plenty of blame to go around.

How about this: Where would this team be without A-Rod this year? Quite possibly in dead last. If I blame anything for the failure of the 2008 Yanks, it's the entire team offense. In fact, if you were going to blame any one player, it'd have to be Cano. If Cano did what he's supposed to be able to do all year, I'm not sure we're 6 games out of the WC right now. Additionally, running Melky out there every day to the tune of a .250/.280/.280 stat line didn't exactly help, and
missing Posada also was a far more crushing blow than it initially seemed. While they've been plusses on the defensive end, Molina and Pudge have been significantly below replacement level on offense. When 3-4 of your lineup spots are automatic outs, it's tough to win games.

Hit Man:

No amount of stats can change what your eyes have seen for 5 years. He's not money and I'm tired of it. I have never booed him, always supported him. Resigning him was a huge mistake. He's just not a confident person, he's not focused when he needs to be, and he's not a winner. No stats could prove or disprove that. He BEGS for judgement to be reserved for his production in the big spots. He's a bum.

Larry:

It's amazing how quickly we forget.

Was A-Rod not the best player in the American League last year? Did he not come through countless times in the clutch? He had something like 20+ RBI in the 9th inning last year. Sure, last year doesn't help this year, but the ability is there.

Is he a headcase? No doubt about it. However, every single opposing team's gameplan against the Yankees is to neutralize A-Rod. He is rarely given anything to hit in big spots. Like I said, the thing he really needs to concentrate on is waiting for his pitch. Too often he goes up there trying to hit a bomb, when a simple base hit or walk would be fine, and he takes these ugly hacks. The pitch he hit into the DP in the 7th was definitely a ball; I don't know what he was swinging at there and that's definitely indefensible.

In the grand scheme of things though, I for one am not upset to have a perennial MVP candidate as a foundation for the team. What they REALLY need to do is to start drafting high-impact position players to replace the morass of old-ass players on this team. Just about everyone is in decline, and the fact that they continue drafting pitchers (and, in this year's case, failing to sign their top pick, who was supposed to be a total stud) with just about zero positional prospects in the system does not bode well for the future.

Hit Man:

Two things: 1) that's just the point, you have him for another 9 years and you don't know if you can count on him. Last year, yes, this year, no. And so on.......2) you just made the case......he has horrible at bats in clutch spots. Who wants that? Ever?

Larry:

I still maintain that Yankee fans' expectations for A-Rod are through the roof, and no matter what he does, he's pretty much always going to get crushed. I refused to be brainwashed by the media that the team is somehow better without Alex Rodriguez.

Are there other 3B who I'd take over him? I wouldn't cry if we managed to trade A-Rod for, say, David Wright, but that's just not happening. Who that the Yankees can realistically get is going to come within .200 points of OPS of his production? Wilson Betemit is a sorry excuse for a baseball player, and right now he would be our starting 3B if we didn't have A-Rod. That is a scary-ass thought.

Hit Man:

The team may not be better w/o him today. But his contract is going to be an albatross shortly. Don't fool yourself, they valued him based on their earning potential (home run chase, marketing potential, particularly to pre teens, etc.). Not based on ops, and certainly not based on whether or not they think he's a guy you can win with. His idol is dan Marino and he's doing his best impersonation.

Larry:

That I can agree with you on. Giving anyone a 10-year contract is insanity, and there's no way I can argue that it will be beneficial to the team to have a 42-year-old making $30 million a year. You are 100% correct, obviously it was a money grab on the Yanks' part. "Come see A-Rod break Bonds' record!" And people will.

So, the question now becomes, what do they need to do to right the ship in '09? What are your thoughts on signing any one of Sabathia, Texeira, Sheets or Burnett? As good as Sabathia is, the Brewers' blatant abuse of his arm concerns me. With Tex, it'd be wonderful to finally have a legitimate 1B who can field, but the guy's gonna want the sun, the moon and the stars. And obviously Burnett and Sheets are both ridiculously injury prone, but absolutely nasty when healthy.

Realistically I expect the Yanks will probably target one from that group, and that one is likely to be Sabathia. If they can somehow get him on a 5-year deal, then maybe it makes sense, but you know he'll want 7 since that's what Santana got. As I said, I'd love Big Tex, but he's going to be crazy cost-prohibitive. Despite their injuries, if I'm Cashman I'd seriously consider picking up both Burnett and Sheets if possible and skip Sabath and Tex, but there's no chance that'll
happen.

What would you do?

Hit Man:

There was a time when i said sign sabathia, pass on the rest - here's where i'm at now.......does signing sabathia and even tex guarantee you anything next year, except for an inflated payroll? no, it doesn't - i think they need to do some damage control on spending before things spiral out of control - as it is, you're sandbagged by arod's contract and jeter's contract - won't be long before we're saying the same thing about jorge and mo, as hard as this is to admit - if i were
cashman, first thing i do is start shopping arod - you might get 70 cents on the dollar (either in terms of return or the fact that you'd have to eat some of that money), but it's time - signing him was a mistake - they can't let it haunt them for a decade - but that's not happening, unfortunately.

I can't stand burnett, i think he's horrible - why would you want a guy that gives you an outstanding start every 4th time out, but those other 3 starts are mediocre, at best? i want consistency out of my guys - i want to know what i'm getting - i want guys who go out and play - here's a guy i would take at third over arod ANY day - kevin youkilis - as much as i hate him, i'd love him on the yanks - but it's too late for that also - sheets is just too much of a gamble, another guy you can't count on -

See, i'm noticing a trend - i want guys that i can count on - no one's perfect, bernie used to perenially lead the league in dp's, as jeter does now, but you knew you could count on them - can't count on arod - you just can't - don't see how you could take the other side of that - and a guy like tex doesn't help you build a winner, he's a guy that you can bring in to take you over the hump - i think we have much bigger problems that can't be solved by giving the world to a first basemen who will be 29 on opening day - bottom line, i don't think the answers are in the free agent market

Larry:

I can't say I disagree with your overarching sentiment.

Truthfully, as much as I defend A-Rod, I was definitely in the "trade him" camp last year, and if Cash was somehow able to send A-Rod elsewhere this offseason and receive talent in return, I'd be fine with that, but the reality of the situation is, it won't happen. What team is going to want to take on A-Rod's contract? For better of for worse, we have him for nine more years.

Obviously Burnett's lack of consistency is troubling, but man is his stuff filthy when he's on. Of course, every time we sign a guy who performs well against the Yanks they never live up to expectations, so it's definitely not the smartest signing. You could probably say the same for Sheets, and he's an extra risk, having never pitched in the AL.

The best thing for the long-term future of the team would definitely be to skip out on the big ticket free agents this year. But can Cashman do that? Will Hank and Hal let him? Especially with a shiny new stadium next year? Somehow I doubt it.

For me, it comes back to developing players, which is why I was so high on Hughes, Joba and Kennedy this year. I still believe in Hughes, I just think he needs a little more seasoning. No harm in giving him a little more time to develop in triple A. Unfortunately we took a step back in this year's draft.

Here's some highly recommended reading on why the Sox are in a better position right now, thanks to much better drafting -

Hit Man:

I'll have to dig into that article later. What about alex for Cain or lincecum?eat some $$$....tho not sure about his no trade

Larry:

Wow. I would definitely trade A-Rod for Lincecum.

Never happen in a million years, although Brian Sabean may be the one GM in baseball dumb enough to go for that.

Hit Man:

Let's think this thru rationally - they have two prospects that they like as much as cain, if not more than cain - they already have cain and sanchez in the rotation, plus zito (who i would consider taking back for arod, by the way - also, what a mistake it was not to trade matsui for sanchez when they had the chance) - so pitching is not their problem, they have LOTS of organizational pitching depth - and they have massive holes in their lineup, and filling bonds' shoes - so it makes sense for them too, no? so how about lincecum and zito for a- rod, with no dollars changing hands?

Larry:

I like it, then the issue becomes who plays 3B?

Hit Man:

That question doesn't have to be answered immediately - by making that trade, you're committing to a 3-5 year timeline

Larry:

As long as this trade also involves Wilson Betemit being jettisoned into outer space, fine by me.

Hit Man:

Lol. A solution would present itself. And that trade gives you more flexibility to draft and trade for immediate impact position players

Larry:

True. Unfortunately, we're talking about the Yankees here, so while it's nice to dream, there's no way we're gonna see a trade for Timmy Lincecum.

Sad as it may be, I would be very surprised to see them not sign at least one of: Sabathia, Tex, Burnett or Sheets. Someone's gotta buy those insanely priced new seats at the stadium (sure as hell won't be someone like me, as I refuse to spend more than $20 to go to a game), and the casual wealthy fan is gonna want to see a winner on the field, or at least, what they perceive to be a winner.

I'm actually not sure we'll get to see a true overhaul in the way the team does business until (a) they not only lose, but lose big-time, as in 5th place, 1990-style Yankees, which then prompts (b) significant declines in attendance. Unfortunately, the novelty of the new stadium may not wear off for some time, so who knows if we'll ever see (b) happen. The only other way we will see a wholesale change in business is if (c) the Steinbrenners end up deciding to sell. While I (mostly)
admire what George has done throughout his time with the Yankees, the family's inability to cut ties with its franchise players is a bit discouraging -- not that we had viable replacements for Mo and Po in the offseason, but even if we did, do you think they would have gone anywhere else? You and I have already discussed the franchise's other Achilles heel, signing free agents to insanely bloated contracts for past performance...I guess my main concern would be who ended up buying the team. Last summer there were rumors of the Dolans. I swear to God, if the Dolans got their fat, disgusting money-grubbing hands on the Yankees, after driving a once-proud Knicks franchise so far into the ground that they can see David Lee's ass in China, that would pretty much be the end of the Yankees as we know it.

Meanwhile, the Sox had no trouble trading their most popular player in franchise history in Nomar, then not resigning Damon and Pedro, and now moving Manny. I hate to say it, but the Sox's front office is eons ahead of the Yanks' as far as evaluating existing talent and drafting new talent.

Do you have any doubt that Jeter won't be back after his current contract expires? I love Jeter as much as the next guy, but how much are we gonna have to pay a then-36-year-old Jeter to put up declining numbers? $15 million/year? There has to be a point where the franchise can cut its ties. I'm not necessarily advocating they do with Jeter (and the fanbase would go apeshit if they did), but it's a valid point that will probably be glossed over by the media and most fans...

Hit Man:

I agree with everything you just said, but you have to make one distinction between the sox trading nomar and manny and letting pedro and damon go - nomar never won a title there, and the other three weren't homegrown - jeter, mo, and po are ALL homegrown and were part of every championship team in the last run - and please, let me dream about trading a-rod.....please - it's not even so much about tiny tim, it's more about losing a-rod....please, just give me this

Larry:

All excellent counterpoints.

Still, when does the goodwill for winning those championships finally dry up?

As you and I have discussed before, Major League Baseball was a VERY different place 10 years ago. Almost every team across the board has gotten much, much better, and the level of play that much more intense. With all the great statistical work being done and a steady stream of information available to anyone with a computer, every GM in the game is becoming much more statistically savvy, and are building better teams as a result.

Boston didn't really even register on the radar screen until 2002. Sure, they played 'em in the 1999 playoffs, but aside from Pedro who even remembers who was on that Boston team that they took down 4 games to 1?

Not to completely dismiss the accomplishments of the Yankees of the late 90s, but that was almost a decade ago. Everyone else has made improvements. The Yankees haven't. Jeter, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte can continue coasting on old achievements, but that doesn't help the current model of the team get any better.

Cody Ransom can play backup in my infield any day of the week

Sure it's the smallest sample size ever, but how many guys have ever touched a 5.000 OPS after two plate appearances? If Cody gets a third at-bat this year, he best jack it out of the park.

Wanted: Major League-caliber center fielder

Bet everyone wishes they could return their God-awful "Got Melk?" t-shirts right about now.

Screw Obama; Hank Steinbrenner for president

From today's Daily News:

"Hank Steinbrenner has a message for Major League Baseball: make the National League 'join the modern age.'"

OK, fifteen percent. But if you fail me again, I'll put a price on your head so big you won't be able to go near a civilized system.

OK so I was in the fence about this whole Joba as a starter thing. Not because I am worried about the eighth inning (though I am), but because I am worried about Mo retiring. And Joba has shown enough to make me feel that he can fill those shoes.......blasphemy, I know. Or maybe it was because I didn't want anyone taking the top spot from Phil..........HE'S my ace of the future, or so I've heard. I don't own a 'Joba Rules' t-shirt, I don't go apeshit when the scoreboard reads 100 mph. But strip all that hype away, and you're left with an astonishing arm and an exciting make-up. And seeing him out on the mound for the first pitch last night made me see the light.

There are obviously still questions about how his stuff translates the second and third time through an order. That remains to be seen. But I saw electricity last night. He threw 38 pitches in the first and got into more full counts than any Yankee fan would like to see. But we have enough of a sample set to know - nay, be confident - that control isn't an issue for Joba. He was jacked up and missing his spots..........and home plate umpire Ed Hickox played too much of a role in that - anyone who saw both halves of that first inning saw two different strike zones. With a kid making his first major league start against a proven ace, that's just a fact of life. But it's a point of information. Now, can someone please explain Joe West's balk call to me? For Pete's sake, a former major league pitcher who is paid to couldn't. So following a walk, an inexplicable balk call, a passed ball by an outstanding defensive catcher on a fastball that moved too much, and a ground out, the Jays were on the board. What a torching.

I just don't see what a lot of others saw. Was Joba sharp? No, certainly not. He's got a lot of attention on him for someone so young, and it seems like Jason Zillo has him schooled in the art of the all-too perfect sound bite. He's got some manning up to do and he has to find how to harness and channel his emotions in a fun and exciting yet productive way. But I saw IT. This kid is the real deal, a rare ace-in-the-making. Call it intuition, call it providence. Whatever. He's the goods.

Mea culpa

So my guest post on River Ave. Blues yesterday was pretty well-received by the masses, and even elicited comments from two of the Yankees' top beat reporters, Mark Feinsand of the Daily News and Tyler Kepner of the Times.

The zero people who read this blog know I was highly critical of Feinsand last week, but he not only stood by what he wrote, he essentially put me in my place. In hindsight, I was probably a bit too hard on both writers in my RAB piece, and deep down I do appreciate the tremendous work they do every day. I mean Christ, I've been following the Yankees in the New York tabloids for 13 years, so as much as I might rib the News or the Times, they're still a critical part of following the team on a daily basis. Additionally, not only do Mark and Tyler provide unparalleled access and insight into the world of the Yankees, but they are both significantly ahead of the pack as far as recognizing what bloggers bring to the table.

As Mark wrote yesterday, "We serve different purposes. I can’t remember the last time a blogger without access broke a story about the Yankees, just as I can’t remember the last time I provided a sabermetric analysis of the bullpen. We do different things, and they are both worthy and valid. I’m the farthest thing from that lunatic Buzz…I love many of the blogs out there, and the idea that bloggers and newspaper guys can’t co-exist is ridiculous."

And Tyler also made a great point - "...the mainstream media to a large degree still sets the agenda. Without our access, our writing and our reporting, fans would know a whole lot less about the teams. I agree with my friend Mark tFeinsand hat we serve different purposes, and there’s no reason bloggers and mainstream media can’t co-exist and applaud each other’s work."

Well said on both parts.

Given that both gentlemen apparently read River Ave. Blues among numerous other Yankee blogs, needless to say my foot is lodged so far down my throat that I can kick my own ass.

And it may have just been by sheer coincidence, but Mark, who yesterday said he couldn't remember the last time he provided a sabermetric analysis of the bullpen, did manage to insert this otherwise-unassuming nugget in today's paper:

"Giambi has 14 hits in his last 30 at-bats, lifting his average from .191 to .244. He ranked fourth in the AL in slugging percentage and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage), establishing himself once again as a force after a slow start."

Can't remember the last time - if ever - I saw OPS cited in the Daily News, but I sure do like it.